Bitcoin: Drawing the Line Between Investors and Gamblers

December 12, 2017
Ziad K. Abdelnour

Exploring Cryptocurrency, Blockchain, and Cybersecurity Trends

This blog explores the volatile intersection of investment and speculation within the realm of Bitcoin. It begins by delineating the fundamental differences between investing, which involves calculated risk-taking for long-term gain, and gambling, characterized by high-risk bets with the hope of immediate rewards. The blog delves into the psychology of Bitcoin traders, highlighting how the allure of quick profits can often transform rational investors into impulsive gamblers. It discusses the market dynamics driven by speculation, including significant price fluctuations that can result from panic selling or frenzied buying. The blog also addresses the broader implications of this behavior on market stability and investor protection. It calls for more robust regulatory frameworks to mitigate risks and protect investors from potential market manipulation and fraud. Additionally, it suggests that educational initiatives could help potential investors understand the risks and rewards of Bitcoin, encouraging more informed and rational decision-making. By fostering a more stable and informed marketplace, the blog argues, the true potential of cryptocurrencies as both investment vehicles and revolutionary financial technologies can be realized.

People who bought and held their .01 bitcoins from 2010 could have enjoyed an increase in value of 119,999,900 percent. If you spent $100 on the most popular digital currency then and didn’t sell or lose your fortune to hackers, your electronic coins might be worth about $120 million today. Those are pretty incredible returns, and few people regret buying a few bitcoins back in the day, holding onto them, and reaping the benefits. Of course, none of that offers any guarantees that the value of this or any other digital currency will continue to rise like this or even continue to increase at all.

Is Buying Bitcoin Investing or Gambling?

In fact, it’s possible to argue that the very thing that maintains today’s value is past performance. As you should know from reading any prospectus, past performance doesn’t ever guarantee future returns. If you can afford it and want to spend some money on digital currency, that’s your choice. However, you really should first spend some time considering what it really means to buy bitcoin.

When you buy some bitcoin, are you investing or speculating? In order to figure this out, you first have to decide if bitcoin qualifies as an investment. This question usually sparks a lot of contentious debates among people who are considered financial experts. Aswath Damodaran teaches at NYU’s Stern School of Business. He’s often referred to as the “Dean of Valuation” for his work valuing various assets.

Professor Damodaran divides all investments into four main categories:

Assets
Commodities
Currencies
Collectibles

He says it’s easy to dismiss digital currency like bitcoin as an asset, commodity, or collectible. This digital currency doesn’t generate income on its own like a rental property, an asset that you can touch. You can’t consider bitcoin a raw material like a commodity. It certainly isn’t a collectible.

If nothing else, Damodarian is willing to say that bitcoin might be a type of currency, but he also has gone on to comment that bitcoin isn’t a very good currency. These are some reasons that bitcoin hasn’t yet become a good currency even if it might be loosely classified as one:

It’s not that easy to trade nor commonly accept by most vendors.
If you do find vendors who accept it as payment, they probably won’t give you an actual price until the moment you want to make a trade just because the value is very volatile.

If bitcoin is an investment, it’s hard to classify. You might call it a currency just because it really isn’t anything else.

Professor Damodaran is not at all a fierce critic of electronic currency and doesn’t believe it’s any sort of fraud or Ponzi scheme. He just says it’s impossible to value right now. You can only trade it or price it. You can find many tougher critics than Damodaran, so it’s worthwhile to consider the words of a fairly unbiased scholar and recognized expert in the field.

He does say that if future technology makes it easier to spend bitcoin or other electronic currencies, he might offer a revised opinion. Still, it might be that blockchain technology and not the electronic currency that really has the value. If that’s true, another electronic currency or even a different kind of technology could replace bitcoin.

Should You Regard Bitcoin as an Investment or Speculation?

Just as you know, you should never sell in a panic, it’s also prudent to be wary of buying in a panic. Right now, you might regard bitcoin as something that’s interesting to study or even risk whatever you can afford to lose. If you want to invest in order to secure your retirement, earn profits, or meet other financial goals, you should probably look for something that’s easier to classify as an investment. More important, you will probably be prudent to find an investment that’s easier to value.

If experts are having a hard time telling if or when this will all come crashing down, it can be easy to see this as a gamble. Some people are fine with putting their savings on the line in hopes that things will go the way they guess, but more savvy investors will typically take the “boring” route and put in the hard work required to ensure their financial growth.

Now you know

Disclaimer: This article discusses certain companies and their products or services as potential solutions. These mentions are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as endorsements or investment recommendations. All investment strategies carry inherent risks, and it is imperative that readers conduct their own independent research and seek advice from qualified investment professionals tailored to their specific financial circumstances before making any investment decisions.

The content provided here does not constitute personalized investment advice. Decisions to invest or engage with any securities or financial products mentioned in this article should only be made after consulting with a qualified financial advisor, considering your investment objectives and risk tolerance. The author assumes no responsibility for any financial losses or other consequences resulting directly or indirectly from the use of the content of this article.

As with any financial decision, thorough investigation and caution are advised before making investment decisions.